At-the-Market Raise

Lithium Forecast and Stocks to Buy in 2024

Lithium Market Update: Q1 2024 in Review

Lithium prices remained subdued in the first quarter of 2024, well below highs set in late 2022 and 2023. Various factors, including oversupply and weak electric vehicle (EV) demand, kept prices muted over the 90 day period.

Even as a market glut weighs on prices, Fastmarkets is forecasting that lithium supply will increase by 30 percent by the end of the year. The firm notes in a January report that some new supply is being ramped up, while some high-cost output is being cut — it remains to be seen how the current price environment will impact these plans.

“Market participants expect downstream lithium demand to remain relatively weak and with no imminent concerns about supply shortages, we forecast a tentatively balanced market in 2024,” Fastmarkets explains.

With a market bottom potentially approaching, what other factors were at play in the lithium sector during Q1? Read on for a look at key events during the quarter and what experts see coming heading further into the year.

January: Lithium market calm amid inventory saturation

Lithium oversupply from 2023 continued to saturate the market at the beginning of 2024, dampening prices. Production in 2023 came in at 180,000 metric tons (MT) of contained lithium, 34,000 MT higher than 2022’s output.

“Indications were that inventory was quite strong both at the finished cell level and upstream with miners/brine producers,” Adam Megginson, analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told the Investing News Network. “As such, procurement activity on the spot market was fairly subdued. Buyers in Japan and South Korea opted to draw from inventory or volumes already being procured under contract rather than procure additional on the spot market.”

Trading activity was also muted in January as market participants anticipated China’s Spring Festival.

“Expectations were that demand and in turn prices would pick up afterwards,” explained Megginson. “This restocking activity didn’t immediately materialize after the Spring Festival, which led to some gloomier sentiment in China.”

Notable lithium deals from the first month of the year include two transactions by Chinese chemical and battery manufacturer Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,SZSE:002460,HKEX:1772).

The first, between Ganfeng and Australia’s Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS,OTC Pink:PILBF), amended an existing offtake agreement, increasing short- and medium-term supply of spodumene concentrate. The revised agreement will see Pilbara supply Ganfeng with up to 310,000 MT annually in 2024, 2025 and 2026, compared to the previous 160,000 MT.

“The long-term outlook for the industry remains incredibly exciting. Both Ganfeng and Pilbara Minerals remain focused on extending our respective positions as major, low-cost producers in the burgeoning lithium market,” said Dale Henderson, Pilbara’s managing director and CEO, in the announcement.

Subsequently, Ganfeng penned a supply agreement with South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group (KRX:005380). The deal — which is effective from January 1, 2024, through December 31, 2027 — will see Ganfeng supply an undisclosed amount of battery-grade lithium hydroxide to Hyundai.

February: Lithium producers react to market pressure

As downstream players sought deals amid low prices, producers began revising production tallies.

“We also began to see some supply response to the persistent lower price environment, with the announcement of delays to expansion plans and layoffs at some lithium producers or aspirants,” Megginson said. “I only expect this to palpably impact the supply picture in 12 to 18 months, as that is when these expansions were planned to ramp.”

In mid-January, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) announced it was trimming capital expenditures by US$500 million year-over-year.

“The actions we are taking allow us to advance near-term growth and preserve future opportunities as we navigate the dynamics of our key end-markets,” CEO Kent Masters said. “The long-term fundamentals for our business are strong and we remain committed to operating in a safe and sustainable manner. As a market leader, Albemarle has access to world-class resources and industry-leading technology, along with a suite of organic projects to capture growth.”

A few weeks later, the US-based company entered into a long-term partnership with BMW Group (ETR:BMW) to provide the automaker with battery-grade lithium for its high-performance EVs.

ASX-listed Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR,OTC Pink:LINRF), which plans to open its Kathleen Valley lithium project mid-year, noted the precarious lithium market in a January update.

“The recent material decline in spodumene prices has triggered significant reductions in short and medium-term lithium price forecasts,” it reads. “As a result, we have commenced a review of the planned expansion and associated ramp-up of Kathleen Valley to preserve capital and reduce the near-term funding requirements of the project.”

While the company is reviewing potential ways to cut overall costs, it did note that there will not be any changes to its plant design, which has a planned capacity of 3 million MT per year and is currently under construction.

Given this environment, some market watchers are calling for consolidation in the lithium sector.

“As lithium projects struggle to stay above water, analysts also expect M&A activity to increase as major producers with positive cash flow try to find deals in the market while junior companies try to sell projects in a market where private capitals are scarcer than previous years,” a February 12 report from S&P Global states.

March: Evolving supply and demand factors support lithium prices

The beginning of March brought some recovery in lithium prices as both carbonate and hydroxide made gains.

After starting the month at US$14,977.15 per MT, lithium carbonate prices registered a five month high of US$16,109.48 on March 14. Prices for lithium hydroxide also moved northward on the London Metal Exchange, hitting a high for the first quarter of US$13,425 per MT on March 11.

For Megginson, these moves were in line with a market that’s coming back into equilibrium.

“We forecast a fairly balanced market in 2024,” the Benchmark price and data analyst said. “While the low price environment has caused some project expansions to be pushed back slightly and some of the marginal, higher-cost supply has come offline — this has been mostly counterbalanced with larger producers producing more.”

He went on to outline the factors that likely brought on the March price rallies.

“On the demand side, cathode producers in China announced that they would substantially increase production in March, some by as much as 30 percent month-over-month — albeit compared to a very low level in February as Spring Festival was taking place,” Megginson said. The drivers on the supply side are a little more nuanced.

“Environmental inspections at lepidolite producers in Jiangxi province led to some concerns about supply from the region,” he explained. “Transgressions were found in terms of the handling of lithium slag, and some participants thought that supply could become constricted. In the end, the impact of these inspections was relatively limited with two companies being told to take action, with the remainder recommencing normal production (as of April 5).”

Megginson went on to note that there are now “rumblings” that brine producers in the same region could undergo similar environmental inspections. “Although downstream demand is ticking up notably at the moment, ample supply overall is likely to limit the extent of price rises in the short term,” he concluded.

In addition to price spikes, March also brought major developments for US-focused Lithium Americas (TSX:LAC,NYSE:LAC). The company, which is developing its Thacker Pass project in Nevada, received conditional commitment for a US$2.26 billion loan from the US Department of Energy.

The loan is earmarked for the construction of the processing facilities at Thacker Pass, which Lithium Americas states has the largest-known measured and indicated lithium resource in North America.

The cash injection is designed to further strengthen the North American battery metals supply chain.

“The United States has an incredible opportunity to lead the next chapter of global electrification in a way that both strengthens our battery supply chains and ensures that the economic benefits are directed toward American workers, companies and communities,” Jonathan Evans, president and CEO of Lithium Americas, stated.

What factors will move the lithium market in 2024?

Toward the end of Q1, there was more significant news for the lithium market.

Chile, a key player in the global lithium market, unveiled the full details of its comprehensive plan to enhance lithium production and attract investment. The country explained that operations and projects in its Atacama and Maricunga salt flats will need to be majority controlled by its state operators, which will hold a 50 percent plus one share stake.

Chile also announced that it has opened up over two dozen salt flats in the country for private investment.

The new lithium policy aims to promote sustainable development while ensuring fair participation among industry stakeholders. Chile intends to streamline the permitting process for lithium projects, encouraging greater investment and boosting production. Additionally, the government plans to establish a lithium consortium to oversee research and development initiatives, facilitating technological advancements in lithium extraction and processing.

“The goal of the national strategy is to boost Chile’s lithium production, which is currently expected to rise by 20 percent to 270,000 tonnes in 2024 from 225,000 tonnes in 2023,” Fastmarkets analyst Jordan Roberts wrote. “Low production costs in the country mean producers have been facing less pressure from the recent weakness in lithium prices.”

For his part, Megginson advised watching lithium output from Africa.

“Although the quality of material is more variable than comparable material from, for example Australia, and the continent still makes up a small proportion of overall global supply, supply of hard-rock lithium concentrates from Africa is growing rapidly, especially from Zimbabwe and Namibia,” he said. “Currently, Chinese converters are responsible for the majority of the projects that are at more advanced stages. It is worth noting that many of these projects are not economical when lithium chemicals prices are significantly below RMB 150 per kilogram.”

Lastly, Megginson is monitoring sales activity. “We have seen an increasing number of public auctions and pre-auctions for spodumene concentrate,” he said. “This is definitely something to look out for, and I expect to see more auctions for the remainder of the year, and some similar auctions taking place for lithium chemicals as well.”

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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

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Lithium Market Update: Q2 2024 in Review

Prices for lithium continued to sink during Q2, falling to lows unseen since 2021.

Oversupply, weaker-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) sales and a stalling energy storage sector have impeded lithium’s ability to regain momentum, with lithium carbonate equivalent prices hitting US$12,610.44 per tonne at the end of June.

During a discussion at this year’s Fastmarkets Lithium and Battery Raw Materials conference, Zihao Lee, Fastmarkets price reporter, gave an overview of the current state of the overall lithium market.

“The global market is at a surplus of 180,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent,” he said. “The global lithium surplus is largely a result of a production ramp over the past few years, when prices were at their historical highs.”

Much of that increased production has come out of China, where domestic lithium carbonate equivalent output grew by a whopping 44 percent in 2023. On Mainland China, production climbed to 275,000 tonnes, while Chinese operations in Africa and South America delivered 30,000 tonnes of the material.

Although China ranks third in the world for annual lithium mine production, the nation dominates the refinement segment, which allows it to leverage control over global price dynamics, according to Lee.

“Different regional markets share similar pricing restraints, with Chinese lithium prices determining the direction of lithium prices,” he said. “Because China manages 70 percent of global lithium-refining capacity, it is the biggest consumer in the world and the country also has the most active spot lithium market.”

As new lithium projects get sidelined due to low prices, what other factors are shaping the lithium market in 2024? Read on for a look at key events during Q2 and what experts see coming heading into the second half of the year.

April: Oversupply keeps lithium prices low

Lithium carbonate equivalent prices slipped to US$14,780.57 at the start of April, but had clawed back to a Q2 high of US$15,503.96 by April 9. They then began a consolidation period that would last for the rest of the quarter.

Prices for lithium hydroxide on the London Metal Exchange remained flat from the start of the year.

“Regional markets have begun to converge to similar levels (against) the backdrop of a bearish market globally and oversupply concerns,” said Lee at the Fastmarkets event, which was held in Las Vegas, Nevada.

With prices locked in a downward trajectory, Will Adams, head of base metals research at Fastmarkets, warned of the sector’s precarious state in his presentation at the conference. “The lithium market is in a difficult space — low prices are putting the brakes on development, when in reality there is no time to waste,” he said.

In the long term, demand for lithium carbonate equivalent is set to increase to 2.5 million tonnes by 2030, a substantial difference from the 292,000 tonnes of demand recorded in 2020.

As Adams explained, this increased demand will be satiated from a “more diversified supply base.”

Some of that new supply could come from Piedmont Lithium (NASDAQ:PLL,ASX:PLL), one of North America’s leading lithium suppliers. On April 17, the lithium miner announced that the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality had approved a mining permit for its Carolina lithium project in Gaston County.

The open-pit lithium mine could play a key role in the North American lithium supply chain.

Further down the supply chain, Honda Motor (NYSE:HMC) revealed plans to invest C$15 billion to build a comprehensive EV value chain in Canada. In a late April announcement, the company said the funds will be used to construct an EV plant and a separate EV battery facility in Alliston, Ontario, slated to begin production in 2028.

Another portion of the investment will establish a cathode active material processing plant and a separator plant.

According to Honda Motor, once open, the EV plant will be able to produce 240,000 vehicles annually, while the battery plant will have a capacity of 36 gigawatt hours per year.

May: Tough financing environment for lithium juniors

Despite the difficult price environment, S&P Global data shows that juniors saw some positivity in Q2.

According to the firm, funds raised by junior and intermediate mining companies soared 179 percent month-on-month in April to reach US$1.38 billion, following a slow start to 2024.

The supersized amount represented the highest monthly total in 10 months, and was driven by a 14 percent increase in financings and several high-value deals. The surge was led by the lithium and copper sectors.

However, this energy-driven momentum didn’t last long.

“After nearly tripling in April, funds raised by junior and intermediate mining companies fell 16 percent to US$1.16 billion in May,” a subsequent S&P Global report states. “The decline was fueled by lower copper and lithium financings and partially offset by an increase in gold financing, which rose for a fourth consecutive month.”

As Fastmarkets’ Lee explained during his presentation, the market glut and weak prices have been especially challenging for junior miners and lithium companies in the intermediate stage.

Commenting on incentive prices, he noted, “They usually sit around US$20 to US25 per kilogram per for battery-grade lithium chemicals. Currently, according to Fastmarkets’ assessments, battery-grade lithium chemicals sit below US$15. Therefore, access to capital for new project development or existing production expansion could be challenging.”

This hindrance to the project pipeline could make the market swing back into deficit as early as 2028, said Lee.

June: EV makers sign strategic deals despite sales concerns

As the last month of Q2 unfolded, concerns about weakened EV sales in the EU and Europe continued to apply pressure to lithium demand and prices. Adams noted that Chinese demand growth is set to dip from 113 percent in 2022 to 32 percent this year, while in Europe it’s projected to fall from 44 percent in 2022 to 7 percent in 2024.

However, the most pronounced decline is anticipated to be the US market, where demand growth will fall from 81 percent in 2022 to a meager 4 percent in 2024.

These drops are the result of first-adopter saturation, as well as consumer concerns about affordability, range and charging infrastructure, said Adams. There are also mixed signals from OEMs and governments.

Those challenges didn’t inhibit EV makers from penning large-scale deals at the end of Q2.

In mid-June, sector major SQM (NYSE:SQM) announced that its subsidiary, SQM Salar, had secured a long-term agreement to supply lithium hydroxide to Hyundai Motor (KRX: 005380) and Kia (KRX: 000270).

“We are incredibly proud to announce this supply agreement with Hyundai and Kia,” said Carlos Diaz, CEO of SQM Salar, at the time. “By providing these world-leading EV manufacturers with high-quality battery-grade lithium hydroxide, we are actively contributing to a more sustainable future.”

Earlier in the month, SQM partnered with Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper miner, to jointly exploit lithium and other resources in the Salar de Atacama. The venture aligns with Chile’s strategy to nationalize its lithium industry, leveraging its status as the holder of the world’s largest lithium reserves and a leading producer of the battery metal. Under the nationalization plan, Codelco will hold the majority stake in the joint venture. The partnership entails merging Codelco’s subsidiary, Minera Tarar, with SQM’s subsidiary, SQM Salar, to boost lithium production through 2060.

Other notable news events from June include Volvo’s (STO:VOLV-B) introduction of a “battery passport” for its EX90 electric SUVs, enhancing transparency in the supply chain. This digital tracker, developed with British firm Circulor, verifies the origins and recycled content of raw materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel used in EV batteries.

The battery passport aims to ensure responsible sourcing and improve sustainability.

Available in the EU and US starting this year, customers can access the information via an app or QR code in the vehicle, leveraging Circulor’s blockchain technology for secure tracking.

To end the quarter, SQM announced plans to pilot test direct lithium extraction technologies with a goal of selecting one or more for long-term use by 2025. “We would like to have multiple direct lithium extraction solutions,” Diaz said on stage during the Fastmarkets conference. “It’s difficult to choose one that is going to fit and be suitable for all kinds of different chemicals that can be in different types of brine.”

Looking ahead, Adams noted that the lithium market is consolidating in an environment of oversupply, weak demand and high inventory. He added that there is a risk of further price weakness due to the continued oversupply.

However, lower prices could prompt more supply restraint, helping to rebalance the market.

“We expect prices to remain flat in the short to medium term,” he said.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Top 6 Lithium Stocks of 2024

The second quarter has drawn to a close, and the year’s best-performing lithium stocks on Canadian, US and Australian exchanges are making moves despite today’s tough market environment.

After 2023’s fluctuations, the lithium sector exhibited greater stability in the first half of 2024. While oversupply and weak prices kept some companies from registering large gains during the period, others saw share price growth.

So which lithium-focused companies achieved the biggest increases?

The list below was generated using TradingView’s stock screener, and data was gathered on July 16, 2024. While US lithium companies were considered for the list, none were up year-to-date at the time data was gathered. All top lithium stocks had market caps above $10 million in their respective currencies when data was gathered.

Top Canadian lithium stocks

1. Lithium Chile (TSXV:LITH)

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Year-to-date gain: 32.08 percent; market cap: C$148.56 million; share price: C$0.70

South America-focused Lithium Chile owns several lithium land packages in Chile and Argentina. Presently, the explorer is working to delineate the deposit at its Salar de Arizaro property in Argentina.

On April 9, Lithium Chile announced a 24 percent increase in the resource estimate for Salar de Arizaro. The new total for the project is 4.12 million metric tons (MT) of lithium carbonate equivalent, categorized as follows: 261,000 MT in the measured category, 2.24 million MT in the indicated category and 1.62 million MT in the inferred category.

Not long after, on April 18, the company reported the creation of two wholly owned Canadian subsidiaries — Lithium Chile 2.0 and Kairos Gold — as part of a spinout to separate its Chilean and Argentinian assets.

Lithium Chile will retain its Argentinian lithium projects, and transfer its 111,978 hectares of Chilean lithium properties to Lithium Chile 2.0 and its portfolio of gold assets in Chile to Kairos Gold.

After trending upward through Q1, shares of Lithium Chile reached a year-to-date high of C$0.88 on March 21.

2. Q2 Metals (TSXV:QTWO)

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Year-to-date gain: 32 percent; market cap: C$28.46 million; current share price: C$0.325

Exploration firm Q2 Metals is exploring its flagship Mia lithium property in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region of Québec, Canada. The property contains the Mia trend, which spans over 10 kilometers. Also included in Q2 Metals’ portfolio is the Stellar lithium property, comprised of 77 claims and located 6 kilometers north of the Mia property.

This year, Q2 Metals has also focused on exploring the Cisco lithium property, which is situated in the same region. On February 29, the company entered into three separate option agreements to gain a 100 percent interest in Cisco, news that caused its share price to skyrocket; it reached a year-to-date high of C$0.54 on March 4.

In mid-May, Q2 Metals released re-assayed results from 2023 drilling conducted at Cisco by the property’s vendors. The company used the analytical method it has applied to its Mia drill cores.

“We are pleased with the positive outcome of the re-analysis of the Cisco drill results,” said Q2 Metals Vice President of Exploration Neil McCallum. “A thorough review of the quality control measures has solidified that the new results are more accurate than the original results previously announced. It’s not an unexpected change as the analytical methods now used are more accurate at higher grades above roughly 1.5 percent Li2O and we have several samples above that range.”

Later that month, the company announced the start of a summer drill program at the Cisco property. It has since released multiple significant updates, including the confirmation of eight new mineralized zones on July 8.

Q2 Metals closed the acquisition of Cisco in June and now wholly owns the project.

3. Rock Tech Lithium (TSXV:RCK)

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Year-to-date gain: 14.81 percent; market cap: C$163.05 million; current share price: C$1.55

Rock Tech Lithium is developing upstream and downstream lithium capabilities. The company’s approach includes the production of sustainably sourced spodumene feedstock from its Ontario-based Georgia Lake project, as well as the construction of lithium hydroxide converters, starting with its Guben converter in Brandenburg, Germany.

In May, Rock Tech received construction and operations permits for Guben, which has a planned annual capacity of 24,000 MT of lithium hydroxide monohydrate; this was the final approval needed for the refinery.

In the years to come, the company expects to source raw material from recycling discarded batteries, pledging to have 50 percent of the feedstock at its German converters come from recycled lithium by 2030.

In late June, Rock Tech received a binding letter of intent from Brandenburg’s Ministry for Economic Affairs, Labor and Energy for up to 90 million euros in subsidies for its Guben converter.

Additionally, the company’s application for federal funding from the German Railway Authority is progressing well, and will potentially yield another 10 million euros in grants. Rock Tech plans to use this funding to help shift transport from road to rail. Shares of Rock Tech reached an H1 high of C$2.01 on June 5.

Top Australian lithium stocks

1. Prospect Resources (ASX:PSC)

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Year-to-date gain: 57.38 percent; market cap: AU$64.62 million; share price: AU$0.14

Africa-focused explorer Prospect Resources holds a diversified portfolio of assets located in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Namibia. The company’s lithium projects, Omaruru and Step Aside, are in Namibia and Zimbabwe, respectively.

In late June, Prospect released an update on its exploration activities at the projects. The company reported strong assay results from Phase 4 diamond drilling at Step Aside, and shared results from follow-up Phase 2 drilling at Omaruru.

In a release, Managing Director Sam Hosack highlights the significant mineralization potential at both projects.

Moving forward, Prospect plans to slow down spending at its lithium projects as it turns to its newly acquired Mumbezhi copper project. The company believes it can monetize Step Aside in the near term to aid in this goal.

Company shares rose to an H1 high of AU$2.05 on May 27.

2. Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL)

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Year-to-date gain: 53.79 percent; market cap: AU$867.55 million; current share price: AU$4.46

Europe-focused Vulcan Energy Resources aims to support a carbon-neutral future by producing lithium and renewable energy from geothermal brine. The company is currently developing the Zero Carbon lithium project in Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley. Vulcan is utilizing a proprietary alumina-based adsorbent-type direct lithium extraction process to produce lithium with an end goal of supplying sustainable lithium for the European electric vehicle market.

On April 11, Vulcan announced the commencement of lithium chloride production at its lithium extraction optimization plant in Germany. According to the company, the milestone marks the first lithium chemical production in Europe using local supply. The plant consistently exhibited over 90 percent lithium extraction efficiency.

Vulcan will now prepare the 40 million euro facility for commercial production. The company already has binding lithium offtake agreements in place with major automakers and battery manufacturers, and expects to supply enough lithium for 500,000 electric vehicles during the first phase of production.

Shares of Vulcan marked an H1 high on May 22, trading for AU$5.54.

3. Anson Resources (ASX:ASN)

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Year-to-date gain: 11.11 percent; market cap: AU$200.03 million; share price: AU$0.15

Anson Resources holds a portfolio of projects in the US and Western Australia. Its primary asset is the Paradox lithium project in Utah, which Anson is transforming into a major lithium production operation for the North American market.

On May 8, Anson received approval from Utah’s Department of Natural Resources to source water, or brine, for lithium extraction at its Green River lithium project. The permit allows the non-consumptive use of 19 cubic feet of brine, which the company will process and then return to its original geological formation.

This is the company’s first permit approval for lithium production from brine in Utah.

In late June, Anson partnered with Koch Technology Solutions to use Koch’s Li-Pro process for a pilot Lithium Selective Sorption unit at the Green River lithium project.

The pilot project, funded jointly by Anson Resources and Koch through a convertible note, will be used to collect data for the potential launch of a commercial-scale plant using the technology. It is expected to enter pilot production in July.

Shares of Anson marked a year-to-date high of AU$0.16 on July 10.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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